There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

My last article on AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) was published a bit more than a month ago. To wit, that article was titled "AGNC Investment: Let Your Profits Run" and was published on February 11, ...

The inverted yield curve, an age-old recession indicator that has been flashing since July 2022, is proving reluctant to go away. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was higher than the yield on ...

Get all latest & breaking news on Inverted Yield Curve. Watch videos, top stories and articles on Inverted Yield Curve at ...

In macroeconomics, the yield curve is used to forecast the probability of a recession. When the curve becomes inverted, it means that short-term yields are higher than long-term yields which, up until ...

Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide to plot your own financial data.

The yield curve shows the difference in the short- and long-term interest rates of bonds and other fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term ...